The Big Three

Increasingly, the “Big Three” dominating the future of the automotive industry are not the traditional US OEMs of Chrysler, Ford and GM but the three critical “E” factors: Economics, Energy and the Environment. All are obvious: a product must be profitable for the manufacturer and affordable by the consumer; the manufacturing and operating energy supplies must be sustainable; and the environmental impact – from dust to dust – must be acceptable. In a competitive marketplace, one should probably add a fourth “E” factor – Esthetics, or possibly Enthusiasm or even Excitement for the more exuberant sales personnel!

In this editorial we want merely to observe that, while none of these are new concerns, they have not all received equal attention in the past. During recent years we have begun to see greatly increased interest in the Energy and Environmental issues: without affordable energy and without regulatory sanctions, there will be no product.

Even these two “E” factors are not truly new concerns. A recent Smithsonian magazine article notes that 100 years ago, in May 1908, Theodore Roosevelt (then US President) convened a conference of US State governors to address the “Conservation of Natural Resources.” In particular, he stated that “the time has come to inquire seriously what will happen when our forests are gone, when the coal, the iron, the oil, and the gas are exhausted.”

As we look at the automotive powertrain, it is very clear that, even if the time had come to discuss such issues in 1908, we still do not have an authoritative or commonly accepted answer a century later. Whether we consider fossil fuels or alternatives, the optimal way to power vehicles of the future is a matter of intense debate. While such discussions are a source of intellectual delight in academia, these issues and how they are resolved will have enormous impact on not merely our mode of transportation but even our way of life.

An intriguing development is the current rush to produce plug-in hybrids. Even the world’s largest automotive manufacturers, including Ford, GM and Toyota, are heavily investing in this technology despite their initial reservations about affordability, durability, and mass consumer acceptability. Will the series hybrid (like GM’s Volt) or parallel hybrid (like the Prius) eventually dominate? Will Li-ion batteries ultimately supplant Ni-metal hydride batteries? Will any of these options, years from now, be seen as only temporary, until some “killer technology” arrives that ushers in truly sustainable transportation?

The answers may not yet be obvious but, ideally, even if hybrid electric vehicles, whether plug-in or not, have only a few years in the limelight, the technical developments that can make them viable today will also serve well whatever replaces them in the future.

The technology in even more conventional propulsion systems is by no means stagnant, as the articles in this issue show. And for a truly comprehensive look at current trends in the world of the automotive powertrain, plan to attend EMISSIONS 2010 in Ann Arbor, www.emissions2010.org, GPC 2010 Events, September 22-23, 2010 Munich, Germany, November 3-4, 2010 Troy, Michigan, www.gpc-icpem.org

M. Nasim Uddin, PhD
Editor-in-Chief